4:08 · October 5, 2026
How an Unopened Data Center Can Affect Your Power Bill
A data center's expected electricity demand can shape grid planning before it opens. We follow one dated case: PJM's capacity auction held in December 2025 for June 2027–May 2028, where the independent market monitor reran the auction in a model without forecast data-center growth. Modeled auction revenue came out about $6.2 billion lower.
What that number is not: a surcharge on any household, a refund, or a measure of what any one bill paid. How capacity costs reach you depends on your utility, supplier and rate arrangements. A research preprint (not peer-reviewed) found that from 2015 to 2024 data centers slightly lowered average U.S. retail electricity rates — and its authors warn future supply constraints could reverse that.
Check your own utility (supported utilities only; not a calculator for your household's data-center charge): precis.news/bill-check
Case study: PJM 2027/28 Base Residual Auction. Current context: PJM's large-load forecast review began Sept 29, 2026.
Check your own utility
Bill Check
Find whether your utility is inside PJM, where capacity sits on your bill, and who regulates its rates.
Sources
Every factual statement in the episode. Open one to see exactly where it comes from and what it does not show.
Verified · Monitoring Analytics (PJM IMM) · 2026-01-05
The load forecast behind PJM's 2027/28 capacity auction counted 13,018 MW of forecast data-center load above embedded load: new data-center load and forecast increases at existing sites. + details
Where: p.2 (definition of forecast data-center load); Table 11, Scenario 3
Scope: PJM 2025 load forecast as used for the 2027/28 BRA. Forecast includes expansions at existing sites, not only unopened buildings; the illustrated building illustrates expected demand and is not a real facility. Says demand counts in planning, not that any cost reaches a bill.
Verified · Monitoring Analytics (PJM IMM) · 2026-05-14
All LSEs must buy capacity equal to their peak load plus a reserve margin through the market. + details
Where: 2026 Q1 State of the Market, Section 5 Capacity, report p.326 (PDF p.3)
Scope: PJM capacity market. The obligation falls on load-serving entities; 'the grid operator organizing a dinner' is an analogy for the planning, not a statement of who pays.
Verified · PJM Interconnection (Inside Lines) · 2026-09-29
On Sept 29, 2026 PJM began its annual review of proposed large-load adjustments (mainly data centers) for its 2027 Long-Term Load Forecast, using updated guidelines that weigh how likely projects are, including firm commitments for near-term years. + details
Where: article body: review start date, 12 utilities, firm-commitment guidelines, November/January timeline
Scope: PJM 2027 Long-Term Load Forecast review only; time-sensitive until the forecast is published (January 2027).
Verified · Monitoring Analytics (PJM IMM) · 2026-01-05
Excluding only forecast data-center load growth (13,018 MW), the IMM's model puts 2027/28 auction revenues $6.24B (38.0%) lower than the actual $16.41B. + details
Where: Table 11, Scenario 3
Scope: PJM 2027/28 BRA, IMM model, Scenario 3 vs actual. Shown on screen as $16.41B actual vs $10.17B modeled and a $6.24B modeled auction-revenue difference, narrated as 'about six point two billion dollars'. Modeled auction revenue: not a refund, not a household charge, not proof the forecast projects will not happen.
Verified · Monitoring Analytics (PJM IMM) · 2026-01-05
The 2027/28 Base Residual Auction was held December 4-10, 2025, for the delivery year beginning June 1, 2027. + details
Where: p.1
Scope: Dates only.
Verified · Monitoring Analytics (PJM IMM) · 2026-01-05
Cleared capacity in the 2027/28 BRA comprised generation and demand response (DR). + details
Where: Table 2, rows 'Cleared UCAP (generation and DR)'
Scope: 2027/28 BRA participation categories only; no volumes shown.
Verified · Monitoring Analytics (PJM IMM) · 2026-01-05
The 2027/28 BRA cleared at the maximum price, $333.44/MW-day UCAP, and 6,516.6 MW (UCAP) short of PJM's reliability requirement. + details
Where: p.1-2 (shortfall), Table 2 row S; VRR curve section (maximum price $333.44)
Scope: 2027/28 BRA only; uses the IMM's corrected shortfall, not PJM's original press figure; the cap is specific to that auction's agreement.
Verified · Monitoring Analytics (PJM IMM) · 2026-05-14
LSEs pay the locational capacity price for their zone; zonal charges follow each zone's share of forecast peak load. + details
Where: Section 5, report p.326 (PDF p.3); settlement discussion PDF p.25
Scope: Wholesale obligation on load-serving entities; not a household allocation.
Verified · Pennsylvania PUC (PAPowerSwitch)
In Pennsylvania the utility remains the distribution company while customers can choose who supplies generation; the price to compare covers the generation portion. + details
Where: FAQ: 'How to Switch'; 'Understanding Your Bill'
Scope: Pennsylvania context only; other states differ.
Contested · Watten, Bistline & Blanford (preprint) · 2026-06-18
An instrumental-variables study finds data centers caused average US retail electricity rates to fall modestly from 2015 to 2024, while warning that future supply constraints could reverse the effect. + details
Where: abstract; v1 (only version, no journal reference)
Scope: 2015-2024; national average retail rates; preprint, not peer-reviewed. Not a refutation of the regional future-auction result.
Verified · Précis
Précis Bill Check maps Penelec (PA) to PJM zone PENELEC with the PA PUC and the Office of Consumer Advocate, gives no estimate, and says 'Not verified' for utilities it has not verified. + details
Scope: Supported utilities only; a route to public records, not a calculator. paoca.org and pjm.com zone map unreachable from this machine on 2026-10-04.
Disclosure
Narration: AI voice (ElevenLabs).
Illustrations: 5 generated images. Factual claims and data graphics are sourced above. Generated scenes, explanatory metaphors and the sample power bill are illustrations, not documentary evidence.